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UID:9c48ea77-c461-4fa6-bb1f-372343edbcab@nexttoyou
DTSTAMP:20261106T170214Z
DTSTART:20261112T213000Z
DTEND:20261112T230000Z
SUMMARY:Agricultural Economics Seminar Series – Dr. Tor Tolhurst
LOCATION:Waters Hall 342
DESCRIPTION:Dr. Tol Tolhurst\, Michigan State Unviersity Department of Agr
 icultural\, Food\, and Resource Economics\, will present "Probability Bou
 nds for Inference with a Single Treated Cluster\," during the Agricultura
 l Economics Seminar Series.\n\nDr. Tor Tolhurst is an applied microeconom
 ist who studies rare\, extreme events in food and agricultural systems an
 d how they affect risk\, resilience\, and policy. He holds a Ph.D. from U
 C Davis\, an M.Sc. from the University of Guelph\, and a B.Comm. from the
  University of British Columbia.\n\nAbstract:\n\nMany quasi-experimental 
 studies have a single treated cluster: a state passes a law\, a hurricane
  strikes a city\, or a school district adopts a new curriculum. A single 
 treated cluster biases cluster-robust standard errors severely downward\,
  even with many control clusters and many observations per cluster. I pro
 pose a non-asymptotic\, distribution-free approach to single cluster infe
 rence based on concentration inequalities. The test compares the treated 
 estimate to a reference distribution of placebo estimates. Size control r
 equires the treated and placebo estimates are weakly exchangeable under t
 he null\, a condition familiar from permutation and bootstrap tests. Clos
 ed-form critical values come from a finite-sample Chebyshev inequality\, 
 for which I derive a one-sided version. I apply the test to asset bubbles
  and consider where it may or may not offer advantages over current metho
 ds\, particularly under cluster heterogeneity.\n\nhttp://next-to-u.app/ev
 ents/9c48ea77-c461-4fa6-bb1f-372343edbcab
URL:http://next-to-u.app/events/9c48ea77-c461-4fa6-bb1f-372343edbcab
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